Democrats, riding a wave of electoral confidence, are now challenging Republican dominance in a Tennessee congressional district that former President Donald Trump carried by a commanding 22-point margin. The special election, set for December 2, will decide who replaces former Republican Representative Mark Green, who unexpectedly retired in July.
A Surprisingly Competitive Race
The contest pits Democratic state legislator Aftyn Behn against Republican Matt Van Epps. While not officially a toss-up, the race has tightened enough to attract significant outside investment from both national parties. A recent survey revealed Van Epps leading by 10 percentage points, a margin that makes Republican strategists nervous. This development follows a series of Democratic victories in off-year elections along the east coast, raising hopes of a potential blue wave in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.
A national Democratic strategist working on House races expressed cautious optimism to HuffPost. "We're cautiously excited about this race," the strategist said. "Anything even approaching a 10-point margin here is a clear sign of Democratic strength heading into 2026." With early voting already underway, a longshot victory for Behn would significantly escalate GOP concerns about their electoral standing.
High Stakes and National Implications
The outcome of this election carries profound national consequences. If Democrats can retake either the House or Senate in the future, Republicans would lose their ability to pass partisan legislation. Furthermore, Democrats would gain subpoena power to investigate the Trump administration, and retaking the House would potentially put impeachment back on the table.
Perhaps sensing the danger, Trump's super PAC, MAGA, Inc., has started spending money for the first time since 2024. The group is investing $15,000 on voter phone calls, and the former president himself held a tele-rally to support Van Epps. During the call, Trump attacked Behn, calling her a "left-wing lunatic" and comparing her to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez due to her "radical left and dangerous" policies, as reported by the Nashville Banner.
Campaign Dynamics and Financial Landscape
On the Democratic side, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin traveled to the district to rally volunteers, expressing strong confidence in Behn's campaign. "Anyone who's within 16 points right now is within striking distance," Martin stated, according to the Tennessean. "And Aftyn is not only within striking distance, she's on the verge of making this happen with all your help."
A Democratic group called Your Community PAC has entered the fray with a catchy ad labeling Van Epps a "hedge fund puppet" who would help Trump keep government files on Jeffrey Epstein secret. The group, which is a nonprofit funded by liberal foundations, has received $700,000.
Despite the intense activity, the precise state of the race remains somewhat unclear, largely due to ambiguous financial standings. Contrary to the typical pattern where Democrats massively outraise Republicans in low-profile special elections, Federal Election Commission records from the end of September show Behn had raised only $188,000 compared to Van Epps' $402,000.
