On July 1, Canada, the United States and Mexico began the first formal review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). For the agri-food sector, this review could shape investment, food prices and trade flows for years to come. Yet instead of projecting clarity and consistency, Canada is sending mixed messages.
Mixed Messages Undermine Credibility
Weeks ago, the federal government released a video portraying Canada’s reliance on the United States as a strategic weakness. Shortly after, Prime Minister Mark Carney told a New York audience that Canada could help “Make America Great Again.” According to Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, such contradictions weaken Canada’s negotiating position. “Trade policy is not branding. It is about confidence,” he writes.
Job Creation Claims Contradict Data
Charlebois also challenges the Prime Minister’s assertion that Canada is creating jobs at twice the rate of the United States. Over the past year, Canada recorded a net loss of roughly 25,000 jobs while the U.S. added nearly 900,000. “Canadians are entitled to their political preferences, but they are equally entitled to expect public statements to reflect publicly available data,” he notes.
Export Diversification Progress Is Limited
The government’s optimism about export diversification also faces scrutiny. Exports to non-U.S. markets have increased, but much of that growth is driven by higher shipments of gold and other commodities. Statistics Canada indicates that excluding precious metals, export performance is considerably weaker. Other analyses show gains have come from established exporters, not new firms entering foreign markets. For agri-food, roughly 70 to 72 percent of exports still go to the United States. “That dependence is not a policy failure; it is an economic reality,” Charlebois emphasizes.
Gordie Howe Bridge Dispute Adds Tension
Recent tensions over the Gordie Howe International Bridge illustrate the stakes. Nearly one-quarter of all Canada-U.S. agri-food trade moves through the Detroit-Windsor corridor. The U.S. demand for a share of toll revenues, despite Canada financing construction, is difficult to justify. “Trade negotiations are not about fairness. They are about leverage and outcomes,” Charlebois writes, warning that food supply chains do not respond well to diplomatic friction.
Need for Strategic Discipline
Charlebois concludes that successful trade negotiations require credibility, relationships and continuous engagement, not public rhetoric alone. “Canada needs fewer slogans and more strategy,” he says. As CUSMA enters its first formal review, the country must defend its interests firmly and consistently, recognizing that North American agriculture has become one of the world’s most integrated food systems.
