Alberta Premier Danielle Smith would have been wise to consult David Cameron before committing Alberta—and by extension, Canada—to a potentially divisive secessionist battle. Cameron, who called the Brexit referendum, famously warned, 'You could unleash demons of which ye know not.' He believed the vote would strengthen his hand against Brussels and that the status quo would prevail. A decade later, the demons are undeniable: the UK left the EU, only to seek reentry by stealth, while Cameron resigned amid political chaos that now threatens Britain's two-party system. How he must wish for a time machine.
Comparing Referendums: Britain vs. Alberta
No two referendums are identical, and some may dismiss the comparison as hyperbolic. Alberta's vote is actually a referendum on whether to hold a future referendum—a clumsy gambit by Smith to delay reckoning. Moreover, a province seceding from a country is far more traumatic than a state leaving a supranational organization. Local frustration with federal incompetence is not nationalism, and petro-enthusiasm does not justify a new country. Alberta's cultural differences from Toronto or Ottawa pale beside those of Scotland from England, Catalonia from Madrid, or Quebec from English Canada.
The Unpredictable Nature of Referendums
Referendums often produce strange results, especially when the ballot question becomes a proxy for broader grievances. In Britain, the Brexit vote was fought on immigration and general malaise, not EU regulation or the dream of a Singapore-on-Thames. Similarly, in Alberta, many unhappy with plummeting living standards under Trudeau's policies or a decade of hostility toward Canada's energy industry may see the referendum as a chance to send a message to Ottawa—a temptation too attractive to resist.
If held today, a significant minority—26 percent, according to Abacus Data—strongly supports independence. This foundation can grow as the campaign builds and media coverage accelerates, bringing separatism from Twitter's fringes into everyday reality. Smith risks unleashing demons she cannot control.
