The question of whether Alberta can secure a better deal within Canada—or whether a failed separation attempt would simply restore the status quo—continues to divide the province. According to a February Angus Reid poll, 56 percent of Albertans believe they contribute more to the rest of Canada than they receive, while only six percent think the opposite.
Shared Grievances, Different Tactics
Speaking at conferences in recent months, I have observed that both "stay" and "leave" Albertans express similar frustrations but differ on how to address them. Alberta remains Canada's richest province, with a per capita GDP of $71,000 in 2025, but this marks a significant decline from the peak of $81,100 in 2014. The oil price crash in late 2014 was a blow, but even after prices recovered, per capita GDP continued to fall as resource development stalled.
Global Context of Separation
Albertans and Quebecers are not alone in considering separation. The number of sovereign states has risen from 50 in 1945 to about 200 in 2025. Larger countries benefit from shared costs for public goods like defense and legal systems, as well as coordinated infrastructure such as power grids and transportation networks. Larger markets also encourage competition and economies of scale.
However, smaller countries may be more homogeneous and better able to cater to their populations' political and cultural preferences. A 2011 study found that breakup is more likely when populations are less culturally homogenous and geographically distant. Historical examples include the dissolution of empires, which often led to significant economic losses—averaging 24 percent of per capita GDP after ten years, according to a 2019 study. Yet some breakups have fostered long-term prosperity, especially when new countries gain access to large markets and democratize. Examples include Norway and Sweden in 1907, Malaysia's expulsion of Singapore in 1965, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia's "velvet divorce" in 1993. An independent Alberta would presumably have access to the vast American market.
Alberta's Growing Frustrations
Over the past decade, Alberta's grievances have intensified. Federal climate policies have blocked oil and gas development, fueling frustration. Ottawa's deficit spending and civil service growth, along with higher top federal tax rates, have placed a disproportionate burden on Albertans. From 2015 to 2024, Alberta transferred nearly $130 billion through the federal budget to other provinces, including $19 billion last year—four percent of its GDP. This is far more than any other province contributes. Ontario, the second-richest province, still receives equalization payments. While equalization is only part of these inter-provincial transfers, it remains a persistent sore point, especially as grants are now tied to Canada's GDP growth rate.
High taxes and uncontrolled federal spending clash with Alberta's small-government philosophy. Yet Albertans feel powerless to influence federal policies. Unlike Australia, Germany, and the United States, Canada's provinces lack a regionally representative body at the federal level, leaving them to protect their own interests as best they can.
