Federal Liberal Support Dips but Carney Holds Double-Digit Lead in New Poll
As spring arrives in Ottawa, the political landscape shows the Mark Carney Liberals maintaining a substantial advantage over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives, despite a minor slip in support. The latest political tracker from Liaison Strategies reveals the Liberals at 44% national support, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 9%.
Polling Details and Regional Breakdowns
The survey, conducted between March 23 and April 4, 2026, sampled 1,000 Canadians with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. While the Liberals fell one point from previous polling, they continue to hold a double-digit lead nationally. The NDP remains in single digits at just 7%, indicating their recent leadership change has provided little momentum. Other parties show minimal support: the Bloc Québécois at 5%, with the Greens and People's Party of Canada each at 2%, and 2% undecided. An additional 12% expressed support for other unspecified parties.
Significant Regional Disparities Emerge
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, noted, "The Liberals continue to hold a significant advantage across most of the country, driven by strong numbers in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia." The data reveals substantial gaps in key battlegrounds:
- Ontario: Liberals lead with 46% support compared to Conservatives at 30%.
- Quebec: Liberals hold 34% support, double the Conservatives' 17%.
- British Columbia and Atlantic Canada: Liberals lead with 41% support versus Conservative showings of 33% and 30% respectively.
Conservative strength appears concentrated in the Prairies and among younger voters, with 43% support in Alberta (Liberals at 29%) and 41% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where they trail by just 1%.
Leadership Approval Ratings Show Shifting Sentiment
Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval rating declined three points to 61%, while his disapproval remained steady at 32%. Notably, uncertainty about his performance increased from 5% to 8%. Valentin observed, "His disapproval hasn't risen alongside it; instead, more respondents are now saying they're unsure."
For Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a similar pattern emerges. His unfavourability rating dropped from 57% in January to 50%, but this hasn't translated into higher favourability. Instead, uncertainty about his leadership grew proportionally. Poilievre currently holds a 38% favourability rating with 8% unsure.
Political Implications and Future Outlook
The poll suggests that while the Liberals maintain a comfortable lead, there are signs of potential vulnerability as support softens slightly and uncertainty about leadership grows. The Conservatives, despite making some gains in reducing unfavourable perceptions, have yet to convert this into substantial voting intention increases, particularly in the crucial central Canadian provinces where elections are often decided.
As the political season progresses, these numbers will be closely watched for indications of whether the Liberal lead is sustainable or if the Conservatives can mount a more effective challenge in the coming months.
