OTTAWA — The Pierre Poilievre Conservatives are gaining ground on the Mark Carney Liberals, suggesting the beginning of a shift in Canada's ballot environment, according to new numbers released Monday by Liaison Strategies.
Liberal Lead Shrinks from 11 to 8 Points
The gap between the Mark Carney Liberals and the opposition Conservatives has narrowed from 11 percentage points to eight, with the Tories gaining a couple of percentage points to snag 34% of the decided vote compared to 42% for the Liberals, if a federal election were held today.
“That is not a collapse in Liberal support, but it is a tightening,” said Liaison Strategies’ David Valentin. “The Conservatives are back to 34%, their best result since May 18, while the Liberals remain above 40% among decided and leaning voters.”
The federal NDP continue to lag far behind at just 13%, with the Bloc Québécois garnering 6% of the vote.
PM Carney's Approval Stabilizes
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval rating, which began sliding earlier this month, has stabilized at 58%, up by one percentage point, with his disapproval rating holding at 36%. “That puts him at a net positive of 22 points,” Valentin said. “He is not back to his early-year highs, but the slide we saw earlier in June has clearly stopped for now.”
Those numbers trended in the opposite direction for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who saw his favourability rating fall 2% to 37%, with his disapproval rating increasing three percentage points to 50%.
“Last week was his best standing in our tracker. This week, some of that improvement has come back off,” Valentin said. “The Conservative vote did improve even as Poilievre’s personal numbers worsened — that suggests this week’s Conservative gain is more about the ballot environment than a personal breakthrough for Poilievre.”
Honeymoon Period Waning?
These numbers suggest the honeymoon period for the Mark Carney Liberals may be starting to wane, particularly in the wake of a number of questionable policy announcements, including the BC condo buyout and unanswered questions surrounding Carney’s Friday announcement of a federal fundraising campaign to rebuild the PM’s dilapidated official residence.
The poll was conducted between June 14 and June 27 among a randomized sample of 1,526 Canadians, with a margin of error of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
