New analysis from CNN reveals that Democrats emerged as political winners from the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, despite facing criticism for their handling of health care subsidy negotiations. The assessment comes from chief data analyst Harry Enten, who presented compelling evidence of shifting political fortunes in the wake of the budgetary standoff.
Trump's Approval Rating Plummets to Record Low
Nearly two weeks after the shutdown concluded, President Donald Trump's political standing has deteriorated significantly. His net approval rating has dropped to -15 points, representing a substantial 5-point decline from his pre-shutdown numbers. This marks the lowest point in his entire second term according to Enten's tracking.
"The shutdown might have initially been helping Donald Trump out a little bit — or at least his ratings weren't falling," Enten observed. "But now, his ratings have sunk to a term two low." The data suggests that what might have appeared as a temporary political strategy has resulted in lasting damage to the president's public standing.
Democrats Gain Ground in Key Metrics
While Trump's numbers declined, Democrats saw measurable improvements in their political position. Aggregate polling data shows the party now holds a 5-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, representing a 2-point increase from pre-shutdown figures. This metric, which measures voter preference for congressional representation, serves as a crucial indicator of midterm election prospects.
Enten connected these findings to Democratic performance in key election races, noting the party has been "really, really outperforming the baseline from 2024" in recent contests. This momentum, if maintained, could prove decisive in upcoming midterm elections where control of Congress hangs in the balance.
Healthcare Subsidies Remain Critical Battleground
The political landscape continues to evolve around healthcare policy, with the White House expected to present its plan for extending health care subsidies with eligibility limits ahead of a Senate vote next month. According to prediction market Kalshi, there's currently a 56% chance that the subsidies will be extended this year.
Enten emphasized the interconnected nature of these political developments. "If Democrats get this, and then, of course, they got Trump's approval rating falling and their generic ballot lead widening. Again, I don't see how you can come to the conclusion anything other than they won the shutdown," he concluded.
The analysis suggests that despite initial backlash over healthcare subsidy negotiations, the overall political calculus has shifted in Democrats' favor, creating a more challenging environment for the Trump administration as it looks toward future legislative battles and the approaching midterm elections.
