Prime Minister Mark Carney is actively courting Western Canada, but his own caucus may pose a significant challenge. Last Friday, Carney met with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to reassure her that Ottawa supports a second bitumen pipeline from Alberta to Canada's West Coast. Following the meeting, Smith expressed increased confidence, noting a shift from 'if' to 'when' a deal is signed.
Pipeline Approval Changes
Later that day, Trade and 'One Economy' Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced a 30-day public consultation on changes to major project approvals. These include a maximum one-year timeline, transferring pipeline approval from the Impact Assessment Agency to the Canada Energy Regulator or the Major Projects Office, and exempting projects from species-at-risk reviews when in the public interest.
Alberta Separatist Sentiment
These moves aim not only to expedite major projects but also to quell separatist sentiment in Alberta. Recently, Stay Free Alberta submitted a petition with over 300,000 signatures demanding a referendum on separation in October, pressuring federalists to make the case for Canada.
Carney appears to be addressing these concerns, but a significant obstacle remains: Liberal MP and former environment minister Steven Guilbeault.
Guilbeault's Opposition
Guilbeault resigned from cabinet when Carney signed a memorandum of understanding with Alberta for a pipeline last November and has been vocal in his opposition, including in an open letter last week. On Friday, he stated that the proposed changes go 'further than what Prime Minister Harper proposed at the time.' When asked Monday if he might resign if these changes are adopted in a month, Guilbeault demurred, saying he is 'not at that point.'
Majority at Risk
Guilbeault currently holds leverage because Carney has a bare majority of two seats and needs every vote. As of early July, that majority will drop to one when B.C. MP Jonathan Wilkinson becomes ambassador to the EU, vacating his riding of North Vancouver—Capilano. If Guilbeault quits caucus at the same time and remains an independent, Carney's majority would disappear.
However, this would occur after the House rises, when parliamentary majorities are less critical. Yet an emergency could reconvene the House over the summer, especially with the July 1 deadline for renegotiating the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. Carney and his team are unlikely to take any vacation.
There is also a Machiavellian possibility: Guilbeault's protests may be with Carney's blessing to reassure greener party members that the prime minister hasn't fully embraced fossil fuels. Guilbeault's complaints serve as a pressure valve for members tempted to leap to the NDP and their anti-fossil-fuel leader, Avi Lewis.
