A former Canadian ministerial policy director has dismissed the strategic value of Canada's plan to open a consulate in Greenland, stating it will do nothing to deter U.S. President Donald Trump's escalating ambitions to annex the Danish-held Arctic island.
"Well Wishes" Versus Geopolitical Reality
Joe Varner, a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, characterized the move as the Carney government "flailing around trying to look relevant." He argued that amidst Trump's aggressive posture, Canada has "nothing to offer other than well wishes" to Denmark and Greenland. Varner explained that while the government will frame the consulate opening around themes like Arctic Council cooperation, NATO solidarity, and Inuit cultural ties, these lack substantive power in the current geopolitical standoff.
The consulate in Nuuk is scheduled to open next month, with Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and Governor General Mary Simon attending the inauguration. However, Varner believes this diplomatic gesture will make little difference to Washington's intentions.
Strategic Stakes in the High North
Varner acknowledged the core strategic rationale behind U.S. interest, stating "Trump is not wrong" about Greenland's importance. He described the island as vital territory on North America's northeastern Arctic flank, rich in strategic minerals and uranium. With Russia and China increasing joint military operations in the Arctic, he warned that if NATO or the European Union cannot secure Greenland, the United States may feel compelled to act to ensure continental security.
"In a time of war, or near war, the US is going to have to make hard decisions as they did in the Second World War with regard to controlling Greenland," Varner told the Toronto Sun. He ominously added that given the logic being applied, "Canada could be next."
International Reactions and NATO's Future
The situation has triggered significant international concern. While in Paris attending a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Greenland's future must be decided "solely by the people" of Denmark and Greenland, reaffirming Canada's support for Danish sovereignty. He met with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to discuss Trump's rhetoric.
Other European leaders delivered a stark warning on Tuesday, declaring that a U.S. takeover of Greenland by force would mean the end of the 76-year-old NATO alliance. Despite this, the White House has refused to back down, with officials stating that military force remains "always an option."
As the Arctic becomes an increasingly contested zone, Canada's diplomatic efforts, according to critics like Varner, may be insufficient to address the hard security realities now dominating Washington's calculations.
