Quebec Premier François Legault, the founding leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), announced on Wednesday that he will step down, creating a significant leadership vacuum within the party he built. His departure comes after seven years as premier and 14 years at the helm of the CAQ, which he established in 2011 as a third-way alternative to the federalist Liberals and sovereignist Parti Québécois.
The End of an Era and a 'One-Man Band'
Political observers were quick to label Legault as "the father of the CAQ" and its only leader ever, noting the profound challenge his exit creates. "There's no obvious replacement right now, because it was kind of a one-man band," said Dónal Gill, an assistant professor of political science at Concordia University. He pointed to the party's official registered name, "Coalition Avenir Québec – L'équipe François Legault," as evidence of how central the premier's personal brand was to its identity.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, echoed this sentiment, stating the party's survival is now in question. "It's very hard to know if the party will survive," Béland said, referencing a recent Pallas poll that showed the CAQ tied for fourth place with Québec solidaire. "For them to catch up and win (the next election), it's a very long shot."
A Legacy of Rise, Stagnation, and Decline
Analysts credited Legault with a historic political achievement in breaking Quebec's traditional federalist-sovereigntist duopoly. "He was very, very effective in pitching his alternative vision for Quebec" during the successful 2018 campaign, Gill noted. However, the initial promise faded in office. The CAQ government became associated with "crony capitalism" reminiscent of past Liberal governments while also focusing heavily on the cultural nationalism of the PQ, Gill explained.
Legault's once-high popularity plummeted during his second term. Scandals like the problematic SAAQclic IT rollout and the controversial Northvolt battery plant project damaged the government. However, experts identified Bill 2, the contentious legislation altering doctors' pay, as the final blow. The resignations of ministers Lionel Carmant and Christian Dubé over the bill highlighted the crisis. "The real reason he's resigning is he knows he's the least popular premier in the country," Béland stated bluntly.
The Search for a Saviour and a Shift in Strategy
With the entire CAQ cabinet considered deeply unpopular, analysts doubt a sitting minister can revive the party's fortunes. Names like Simon Jolin-Barrette, Sonia LeBel, and Geneviève Guilbault have been mentioned, but Béland said none are seen as a "potential saviour." The party may need an outsider, a "Mark Carney-like figure" to stage a comeback.
One name that surfaces is Mario Dumont, the former leader of the Action démocratique du Québec, which merged with the CAQ in 2012. Although Dumont, now a media personality, has publicly expressed no interest in returning to politics, his potential involvement is seen as a potential game-changer. "I think (Dumont) could be very, very effective and serious, if he was interested," Gill said.
The party's path to recovery will likely involve a strategic shift. Gill predicts the CAQ will look to recapture voters who have drifted to Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party of Quebec, suggesting a rightward move from the next leader is probable.
Implications for the Political Landscape
Legault's resignation introduces new uncertainty into the Quebec political scene ahead of an election scheduled for October 5, though early elections are possible. Ironically, his departure may not benefit the leading opposition parties. Gill suggested the Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Liberals "would have preferred Legault to go down with the ship."
The PQ, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leads recent polls at 34%, with the leaderless Liberals in second at 24%. Béland compared Plamondon's effective opposition strategy to that of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, noting that "uncertainty is not good, especially for the PQ, because they are ahead in the polls." The CAQ's internal struggle to find a new direction and leader will now become the central drama of Quebec politics as the campaign season approaches.
