The political landscape in Quebec has undergone a seismic shift. After months of insisting he would stay on, François Legault announced on January 14, 2026, that he is stepping down as leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and as premier. His departure, framed as a move for the good of his party and Quebec, marks the end of an era and throws the next provincial election wide open.
A Departion Forced by Polling and Fatigue
Legault's decision followed a prolonged period of difficulty for his government. The exit of key ministers like Lionel Carmant and Christian Dubé weakened his cabinet. However, the final catalyst appears to have been a devastating Pallas Data poll that placed the CAQ at a mere 11 per cent in voting intentions, tied with Québec solidaire at the bottom. With approximately three out of four Quebecers viewing him negatively, Legault acknowledged his presence had become a liability, risking both the party's future and his own political legacy.
"I want the next election to be about the major challenges Quebec is facing, not about Quebecers’ strong desire for change," Legault stated during his resignation announcement. His exit is seen as a necessary reset for the CAQ, which he founded as a "third way" alternative to the traditional federalist-sovereigntist divide.
CAQ's Risky Transition and a Reshuffled Race
The CAQ now faces the immense challenge of a leadership race, expected to conclude by spring. The successor will automatically become premier until the next general election, scheduled for October 2026. The party aims for a swift process to install a new leader at least six months prior.
This transition carries significant risk. The CAQ was built as a broad coalition around Legault's personal appeal, uniting figures with often divergent views. His absence as the unifying "glue" tests the party's fundamental cohesion. The leadership contest could expose internal fractures, making the coming months a critical test of whether the CAQ can survive as a political force without its founder.
PQ's Presumed Advantage Suddenly in Question
This upheaval has profound implications for the Parti Québécois and its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP). Analysts, including public affairs consultant Raphaël Melançon, suggest that PSPP may have the most to lose from Legault's exit. The election is no longer shaping up as a simple referendum on a fatigued, unpopular premier after nearly eight years in power.
Instead, the PQ will face a refreshed CAQ under new leadership and a Quebec Liberal Party that is also expected to have a new leader by spring. The political terrain has become unpredictable. Drawing a parallel to federal politics, Melançon notes that circumstances can change rapidly, citing how Pierre Poilievre's once-assured path to the prime minister's office was altered within a year.
For PSPP, the path to victory is now more complex. He risks being politically overtaken by new opponents in a dynamic race, a scenario Melançon provocatively likens to being "Poilievred." The assumption of an easy PQ victory in 2026 now requires tempered expectations, as six months in politics can be an eternity.
