It is official. The meeting between Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney will take place bright and early Friday morning in Ottawa. This news was confirmed Wednesday afternoon, after days of uncertainty over whether the two leaders would sit down together.
On Tuesday, Carney stated that he would have a conversation with the Alberta premier. However, Smith initially claimed she was unaware of any scheduled meeting. Now, the meeting is confirmed, and expectations are high.
High-Stakes Negotiations
The primary topics on the agenda are expected to include a memorandum of understanding regarding pipelines to the west coast and the upcoming vote on Alberta separatism. Smith has been vocal about the need for Alberta to secure a pipeline route to international markets, while Carney has emphasized his commitment to cooperative federalism.
Smith must walk a fine line. She cannot afford to return from Ottawa and claim everything is going smoothly with Carney if his Liberal government remains more of an obstacle than a solution for Alberta's interests. The premier has maintained a tone of cautious optimism, but many observers question how long that can last without tangible results.
The Independence Movement
Another critical issue is the Alberta independence movement, which has gathered over 300,000 signatures from Albertans who want a referendum this October on whether to leave Canada. Carney has already stated that if Alberta wishes to separate, it must follow the rules laid out in federal law. He has also promised to make the country work for Albertans through his brand of cooperative federalism.
While a majority of Albertans do not currently support independence, most supporters of Smith's United Conservative Party would vote to leave Canada, according to polls. The referendum is expected to proceed as planned.
Carbon Tax and Pipeline Disputes
Alberta and the federal government remain at odds over the rate of increase for the industrial carbon tax. Carney wants a higher rate than Alberta is willing to accept. Smith has indicated she is playing the cards she has been dealt, acknowledging that because Canadians elected Carney and the carbon tax is a priority for him, the province must meet the prime minister partway to secure a pipeline deal.
Smith has been advised to approach the meeting with strategic preparation. Some suggest she should draw lessons from the film Rounders, where high-stakes poker requires careful reading of opponents. More concretely, she should arm herself with arguments like those from Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie, who recently criticized the myopic focus on climate policy at the expense of recognizing the benefits the oil sands have brought to Canada.
The meeting on Friday will be a defining moment for Alberta's relationship with the federal government. All eyes will be on Ottawa as these two leaders lock horns over the province's future.
