The political landscape in Quebec is poised for a significant shift. Premier François Legault has announced his resignation after nearly 15 years at the helm of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), the party he founded. This decision, confirmed on January 15, 2026, immediately triggers a succession battle within the governing party as it prepares for a provincial election that must be held by October 5, 2026.
The Race for Leadership Begins
According to the CAQ's constitution, the party's next leader will be chosen by members through a secret ballot at a leadership convention. This individual will not only take the reins of the party but will also lead it into the next election. The challenge is substantial: recent polls show the CAQ trailing both the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberals. The new premier will inherit pressing issues, from healthcare system pressures to the economic fallout from ongoing U.S.-Canada trade tensions.
In his resignation speech, the 68-year-old Legault stated he hopes the coming election will address Quebec's core challenges, which he defined as restructuring the economy and halting the decline of the French language. He will remain as premier until a new party leader is selected. As of now, no clear frontrunner has emerged, setting the stage for a competitive race.
Top Contenders for the Premier's Office
Several high-profile CAQ ministers are considered potential candidates to succeed Legault. Each brings a distinct profile and set of experiences to the table.
Simon Jolin-Barrette: The Ideological Stalwart
The current Justice Minister, Simon Jolin-Barrette, has built a reputation as one of the government's most ideologically consistent figures. First elected at age 27 while finishing doctoral studies in law, he quickly proved himself a skilled political operator. As Minister of Immigration and later in key roles, he oversaw landmark legislation, including the law on state secularism (Bill 21) and the reform of the Charter of the French Language (Bill 96). He has also been central to the government's legal confrontations with the courts and the federal government in Ottawa.
Geneviève Guilbault: The Prominent Figure
Geneviève Guilbault, the Minister of Municipal Affairs, has been a prominent CAQ figure since the party's first electoral victory in 2018. Her 2017 byelection win in Louis-Hébert was an early signal of the party's appeal. Initially appointed Deputy Premier and Minister of Public Security, her tenure was later overshadowed by the troubled rollout of a digital platform at the Société de l'assurance automobile du Québec (SAAQ). Despite being reassigned, she remains relatively well-known to voters and, according to party insiders cited by Le Journal de Montréal, retains the organizational capacity to launch a leadership bid.
Christine Fréchette: The Steady Operator
As the super-minister of Energy and the Economy, Christine Fréchette is seen as a steady hand but is less known outside political circles. She took on this crucial role following Pierre Fitzgibbon's departure, navigating the fallout from major industrial investments like the collapsed Northvolt battery project. She also shepherded Quebec's energy reform through the National Assembly. First elected in 2022, her previous experience includes managing the sensitive Roxham Road file as immigration minister.
Sonia LeBel: The Negotiator
Before politics, Sonia LeBel gained recognition as a prosecutor at the Charbonneau Commission. Elected in 2018, she has held senior cabinet posts, including Justice Minister and President of the Treasury Board. In the latter role, she led tough negotiations with public-sector unions, including a prolonged dispute with early childhood educators. Following a 2025 cabinet shuffle, she was appointed Minister of Education.
Bernard Drainville: The Nationalist Voice
A former journalist and Parti Québécois minister, Bernard Drainville returned to active politics under the CAQ banner in 2022. The MNA for Lévis served as Education Minister, launching structural reforms, and now oversees the Environment portfolio, where he is tasked with accelerating project approvals—a mandate that has drawn criticism from environmental groups. His strong nationalist credentials are expected to appeal to a segment of the CAQ membership.
Who's Not Running
Media speculation had occasionally mentioned Mario Dumont, the former Action démocratique du Québec leader and current TVA host. However, Dumont has definitively ruled himself out. "I made it clear publicly and privately to everyone concerned that I have no interest, no intention in any scenario," he stated, citing the personal cost of leadership.
The coming months will be critical for the CAQ as it seeks to unite behind a new leader who can confront the province's significant challenges and reverse the party's fortunes in the polls before Quebecers head to the ballot box.
