Public confidence in Prime Minister Mark Carney's capacity to steer Canada's crucial relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump is deeply fractured, a new year-end poll reveals.
A Nation Almost Evenly Split
According to the Leger survey conducted as 2025 draws to a close, 41 per cent of Canadians express trust in Carney to manage the bilateral dynamic, while 40 per cent explicitly state they do not trust him to defend Canadian interests against Trump's political and financial maneuvers. This statistical deadlock underscores a significant challenge for the Liberal government.
"I think time has not been kind to Prime Minister Carney, at this point anyway, in terms of not really showing that he is the man for the job," analyzed Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger’s Central Canada operations.
Impatience Mounts Over Trade Stalemate
The poll indicates a growing national impatience with the stalled progress in Canada-U.S. trade relations. Enns noted that while the government's initial dollar-for-dollar response to Trump's tariffs signaled a readiness to push back, the current perception is one of inaction.
"I think what’s problematic now, we’re not necessarily seeing action. And I think Canadians are starting to question the effectiveness of the government’s response," Enns said. "It’s harder to put your finger on, what exactly are we doing? It doesn’t feel like we’re really even responding."
This sentiment is reflected in a pessimistic outlook for 2026. The poll found 41 per cent of Canadians expect trade relations to worsen in the coming year, compared to only 20 per cent who anticipate improvement. Another 28 per cent foresee no change.
From 'Elbows Up' to Tariff Removal
In a notable policy shift, Prime Minister Carney announced in August 2025 that Canada was removing its 25 per cent counter tariffs on $40 billion worth of U.S. imports, excluding steel, aluminum, and autos. He framed the move as matching a U.S. decision and declared a restoration of free trade on a "vast majority" of goods under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
However, a potential trade deal collapsed in October after President Trump abruptly terminated talks. The rupture was triggered by an Ontario government advertisement criticizing tariffs, which featured clips of the late free-trade advocate, President Ronald Reagan.
The economic impact of the U.S. tariffs is felt widely. A substantial 82 per cent of Canadians believe the measures have had a significant impact on the national economy. On a personal level, 56 per cent report a significant effect on their household finances and lifestyle, a figure that rises to 63 per cent among Conservative voters.
As the new year approaches, the data paints a picture of a measured and concerned Canadian populace, looking to Ottawa for clearer strategy and more tangible results in its most important international relationship.
