Ford Motor Co. lifted its annual guidance on Wednesday by US$500 million, aided by significant tariff refunds, but said it still faces rising materials costs as it works to source aluminum for its lucrative F-150 pickup trucks.
Supreme Court Ruling Provides Relief
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in February that struck down some of the Trump administration's tariffs provided US$1.3 billion in relief to Ford. The company booked a paper gain on that expected refund in the first quarter, bolstering its bottom line, while acknowledging uncertainty around how quickly it will be reimbursed by the government.
Ford raised guidance by less than that refund amount because the company now faces higher-than-expected tariff costs for the year. Those added expenses come especially on raw materials like aluminum, after Ford's major U.S. supplier Novelis suffered two large fires in 2025. Production at the affected part of the New York plant is expected to resume between May and September of this year, the automaker has said. Novelis said it expects production to resume late in the second quarter.
New Guidance and Financial Results
Ford raised its guidance to US$8.5 billion to US$10.5 billion in projected earnings before interest and taxes for the year, from a previous US$8 billion to US$10 billion. The automaker said it will face net tariff costs of US$1 billion for the year, but declined to disclose its gross tariff hit.
Michigan-based Ford recorded adjusted earnings per share of 66 US cents for the first quarter, far surpassing analysts' expectations of 19 US cents, supported by the tariff refund. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes were US$3.5 billion for the three-month period, and revenue was US$43.3 billion. Ford recorded a net profit of US$2.5 billion for the quarter.
Impact on F-150 Production
Inventory of the F-150 has dropped 38 percent in April over the prior year, according to data from Catalyst IQ, largely as a result of the Novelis fires. The F-150 has been the bestselling vehicle in America for more than 40 years, and is a major profit driver for Ford. Any disruptions to its output represent a significant financial hit for the automaker.
F-Series production is now estimated to have fallen 12 percent year-over-year in the first quarter as of mid-April, a steeper drop than expected, said JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, citing data from S&P Global Mobility. "Ford may be having a more difficult time recovering from the Novelis fire than was earlier expected," Brinkman said in the analyst note.
Ford's total vehicle sales decreased 9 percent in the first quarter, with lower EV and hybrid demand accounting for roughly half of the drop. Cross-town rival General Motors on Tuesday reported a 22-percent rise in first-quarter core profit and lifted its full-year earnings forecast, buoyed by a resilient U.S. car market and an expected tariff refund of US$500 million. Ford's stock has risen about 20 percent over the past 12 months, while GM's has risen more than 60 percent.
