Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit Canadian Forces Base Halifax on Monday to announce Canada's selection for a new submarine fleet, as first reported by the Toronto Sun. The announcement comes as Carney travels to Ankara, Turkey, for the NATO Summit, where defence spending and capabilities are key agenda items.
Long-Awaited Decision
Canada currently operates four submarines built for Britain in the 1980s and purchased used in the 1990s. Only one is operational, a situation deemed inadequate for a nation bordered by three oceans. The government had originally promised a decision by end of June. On June 17, Stephen Fuhr, Carney's secretary of state for defence procurement, stated Canadians could expect a decision within 30 days.
Carney's office declined comment on Sunday following the Toronto Sun report. The prime minister will be accompanied by Vice-Admiral Dan Charlebois, commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, for the announcement at the navy's home base.
Mixed Fleet Speculation
Defence circles have speculated that the contract may be split between Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean. The German Type 212CD is known for being exceptionally quiet and suited for anti-submarine warfare and intelligence gathering in the Arctic and North Atlantic. The Korean KSS-III is larger, with greater range and endurance, better for long-distance deployments across Canada's maritime approaches.
If money were no object, acquiring six of each submarine could provide access to both designs' strengths and potentially speed delivery by using two production lines. Relying on a single supplier could delay delivery of all 12 submarines until the 2040s. However, operating two different submarine types with a small fleet would significantly increase training, maintenance, and supply chain costs.
Geopolitical and Industrial Considerations
Splitting the contract would forge long-term strategic military partnerships with NATO allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region via the Korean bid. Top Royal Canadian Navy officials have indicated openness to a mixed fleet, contrasting with Royal Canadian Air Force opposition to a mixed fighter jet fleet of F-35s and Swedish Gripens. Both submarine designs are considered viable for Canada, albeit with different strengths.
Industrial benefits are a major factor. The Korean bid has promoted partnerships with Algoma Steel in Ontario and proposed a Hyundai facility in Canada for hydrogen-powered freight trucks. The German bid focuses on defence partnerships, including working with CAE in Montreal on training systems, partnering with Seaspan Shipyards in British Columbia for maintenance, and integrating Canadian firms into its global supply chain.
Whatever Carney announces Monday will shape the Royal Canadian Navy and Canada's defence posture for a generation.
