Poll Indicates Nenshi Would Defeat Smith in Alberta Election, Liberal MP Claims
Calgary Liberal MP Corey Hogan has highlighted a recent poll suggesting that Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi would become premier if an election were held today, outperforming current Premier Danielle Smith. The poll, conducted by Pollara, shows Smith's United Conservative Party (UCP) at 49 points, with Nenshi's NDP trailing at 42 points. However, Hogan emphasizes that the NDP leads in Calgary and Edmonton, which could tip the scales in a provincial vote.
Urban Support and Electoral Dynamics
According to Pollara's analysis, the UCP maintains a strong lead outside Alberta's major cities but falls behind the NDP in Calgary by a narrow margin and in Edmonton by a significant one. Hogan notes that the NDP's numbers in Calgary have improved compared to the last election, suggesting growing urban support. He argues that, with fair electoral boundaries, this urban advantage would likely result in an NDP government, with Nenshi winning and Smith losing.
Hogan attributes the UCP's struggles in big cities to Smith's perceived accommodation of separatists, a topic he says frequently arises during door-knocking campaigns in his inner-city Calgary riding, including areas like Hillhurst and Sunnyside. He believes this issue is damaging the UCP's appeal among urban voters, potentially reshaping the political landscape.
Contrasting Polling Perspectives
Andrew Enns from the polling firm Leger offers a different view, indicating that Smith and the UCP are not losing ground in Calgary and are performing exceptionally well in rural areas. Enns describes the race in Edmonton as tighter than Pollara suggests, noting that since the UCP currently holds no legislature seats in the capital, there is room for growth. He also points out that Smith's approval ratings have stabilized and are rising, while Nenshi's have declined significantly.
Additionally, Enns highlights that the election of Avi Lewis as federal NDP leader may harm the Alberta NDP, given Lewis's stance against expanding oil and gas production. Despite this, Lewis has expressed support for Nenshi, citing shared values as New Democrats.
Background and Implications
Corey Hogan, who served in the Alberta government under former NDP Premier Rachel Notley and remained during Jason Kenney's UCP tenure, was elected as a Liberal MP in Calgary in the recent election. His insights add a layer of political experience to the polling data, suggesting that urban-rural divides and leadership dynamics could play crucial roles in the next Alberta election.
This poll rollout underscores the volatile nature of Alberta politics, with shifting voter sentiments and strategic issues like separatism influencing potential outcomes. As the debate continues, both parties are likely to adjust their campaigns to address these urban challenges and leadership perceptions.
