Republican Strategist Sounds Alarm Over Eroding Hispanic Support Ahead of Midterms
Prominent GOP strategist Karl Rove has issued a stark warning to fellow Republicans, stating that diminishing support for former President Donald Trump among Hispanic American voters presents a significant threat to the party's prospects in the upcoming midterm elections. Rove emphasized that this demographic shift could have substantial consequences for key congressional races.
Polling Reveals Dramatic Shift in Hispanic Voter Sentiment
According to a June study published by the Pew Research Center, Trump secured nearly half of the Hispanic vote during his successful 2024 reelection campaign. However, recent polling indicates a dramatic reversal, with approximately 70% of Hispanic voters now expressing disapproval of Trump's job performance. This decline appears largely connected to dissatisfaction with his administration's handling of immigration issues.
During a Saturday appearance on Fox News's "Journal Editorial Report" with host Gerard Baker, Rove discussed Trump's hardline immigration agenda and cited new polls demonstrating the president's plummeting approval ratings among Hispanic communities. When Baker questioned the severity of this development for Republicans, Rove responded with a single, telling word: "Big."
The Hispanic Vote's Critical Role in Republican Success
Rove elaborated on his concern, noting that Hispanic voters represent a "variable group" whose movement toward the Republican column in 2024 proved instrumental in Trump's reelection and helped Republicans maintain control of both the Senate and House of Representatives. "But no—it's a problem," Rove reiterated, highlighting the potential electoral consequences.
The strategist specifically pointed to Texas as a state where Republican support appears to be diminishing despite initial enthusiasm for border security measures. "We're going to see it here in Texas," Rove stated. "You can just see the support for Republicans in Texas diminishing, despite the fact that initially there was enormous support for the action in securing the border. These were communities that were being hard-hit."
Immigration Enforcement Controversies Fueling Discontent
Rove suggested that while Hispanic voters initially appreciated Trump's efforts to curb illegal immigration, many have grown disillusioned with the administration's approach. He argued that most Hispanic voters were satisfied when Trump "stopped" what he described as a "vast flood of illegals" that supposedly threatened community safety, but that many are "not so excited" about federal agents targeting nonviolent residents.
This sentiment has been amplified by recent incidents involving U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. Nationwide demonstrations have erupted against the administration's deployment of federal officers in major cities, particularly in Minnesota where resident Renee Good was fatally shot by a federal officer earlier this month.
A Quinnipiac University survey published last week, which polled 1,133 U.S. adults, found that 53% believe Good's shooting was unjustified, while 57% disapprove of how ICE is enforcing the Trump administration's immigration laws. Tensions in Minnesota escalated further last week after another federal officer shot a person in the leg in what was described as self-defense, with Department of Homeland Security officials stating that two other individuals had attacked the officer during an attempted arrest.
Specific Electoral Implications in Texas
Rove, who served as deputy chief of staff to former President George W. Bush, warned that plunging disapproval among Hispanic voters could specifically impact a Texas congressional district stretching from Corpus Christi to Brownsville—a district Trump won in 2024. "Donald Trump carried the district, but he carried it by one point," Rove noted. "So if his support is softening among Hispanics, that makes it unlikely we're going to be able to knock off an incumbent Democrat."
The strategist further highlighted the challenge Republicans face in flipping the district represented by Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, whom Trump pardoned in December following indictment on bribery, money laundering, and other charges. "Not only did the president give Henry Cuellar, who was under indictment, a pardon, but he then expected him to switch parties, and he ain't switching parties," Rove stated. "That's going to be a difficult district for us to carry, despite the fact that Donald Trump carried it last time around, by I think, four or five points."
Growing Conservative Concerns About Midterm Outlook
Rove is not alone in expressing apprehension about Republican prospects ahead of the midterms. Several prominent conservative voices, including Fox News host Laura Ingraham, her former colleague Bill O'Reilly, and Daily Wire co-founder Ben Shapiro, have similarly voiced concerns or braced for potential defeats. This collective unease suggests broader recognition within conservative circles that shifting demographic dynamics, particularly among Hispanic voters, could reshape the political landscape in the coming election cycle.
