It is time for Ontario Premier Doug Ford to clearly articulate what the province seeks from upcoming trade negotiations with the United States. His primary target audience should be Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has recently suggested that Canada's close economic ties to America have become a vulnerability.
Carney's Misguided View on US Trade
In a weekend video, Carney claimed that many of Canada's former strengths, rooted in close ties to the US, have turned into weaknesses that must be corrected. This perspective underestimates the critical importance of American trade to Canada's largest province.
A 2025 report from Ontario's Financial Accountability Office underscores this point. Trade with the US accounted for 77 percent of Ontario's goods exports and 60 percent of its services exports. In 2024, these exports represented 13 percent of the province's GDP and supported 933,000 jobs—roughly one in every nine positions.
Far from being a weakness, Ontario's proximity to the world's largest economy is its greatest economic advantage. Carney's pledge to double non-US trade over a decade is not a viable substitute. Ontario's exports to all other countries combined amount to less than half of what it sells to the US alone.
Carney may be posturing, countering President Donald Trump's assertion that Americans do not need Canadian products. However, the facts tell a different story. More than 70 percent of Canada's merchandise exports go to the US, and Canada is America's largest trading partner. Over $3.6 billion in goods cross the border daily.
Ford's Role in Strengthening Canada's Position
The real weakness that should concern Ontarians is Carney's deal-making ability. Since Trump initiated his trade war, Canada has been on the defensive, making concessions without gaining anything. Ottawa canceled a proposed digital sales tax, withdrew retaliatory tariffs, and enhanced border security—all without securing reciprocal benefits.
Carney needs someone to stiffen his spine. Who better than Ford, a leader who has consistently championed a robust trade deal with the US? Ontario must detail a trade plan that protects its unique interests, which differ from provinces without significant manufacturing sectors. The plan should be simple and easily understood on both sides of the border.
A Bold Proposal for Free Trade
Instead of a complex agreement riddled with loopholes and exemptions, why not propose genuine free trade? This would mean the unrestricted movement of goods and services across the Canada-US border without any tariffs. The concept is not far-fetched, given that at least 85 percent of bilateral trade is already tariff-free under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Total free trade directly appeals to Trump's ego. If Canada has nothing Americans want, how could opening the border cause harm? Such a deal could be framed as a 'big, beautiful agreement' with clear wins for Trump.
The US has expressed interest in accessing Canada's dairy market, an $8.9-billion sector in Ontario. This would be beneficial, as the current supply management system controls prices and inflates costs for consumers. It is a state-controlled system reminiscent of the former Soviet Union. American competition could lower prices, though Canadians' preference for domestic products should continue to sustain the dairy industry.
Ford should seize this opportunity to advocate for a straightforward free-trade arrangement that benefits both nations, rather than allowing Carney's misguided approach to weaken Ontario's economic future.
