An analysis by columnist John Ivison posits that Canada and the European Union possess the collective capacity to win a prolonged arms race against Russia, even in a geopolitical landscape where the United States, under President Donald Trump, may be less engaged. The assessment comes as the pressures of the ongoing war continue to mount on Russia, suggesting the alliance's sustained support for Ukraine is a critical strategic advantage.
Canada's Deep Involvement Despite Communication Snub
In late December 2025, a notable diplomatic moment highlighted Canada's complex position. Following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump listed the leaders he had consulted with, including those from France, Germany, the U.K., and key EU institutions. Canada's name was conspicuously absent from that list, despite the Carney government committing an additional $2.5 billion in financing and loan guarantees to Ukraine just one day prior.
This omission sparked commentary, with conservative strategist Jeff Ballingall mocking that the Liberals "get zero respect" for their financial commitments. However, a Canadian official framed the incident as logistical, not conspiratorial. The call was characterized as part of the "E3+" contact group, which Canada dips in and out of. The official emphasized that Prime Minister Mark Carney, Foreign Minister Anita Anand, and National Security Advisor Nathalie Drouin were deeply involved in a flurry of calls with American, Ukrainian, British, and EU counterparts over the preceding 72 hours.
Sustained Financial and Military Commitment
Canada's role remains pivotal from Ukraine's perspective. President Zelenskyy specifically stopped in Halifax to meet with Prime Minister Carney en route to Washington in late December 2025, seeking future collaboration on energy and critical minerals for post-conflict recovery. This outreach underscores Canada's status as a key partner, built on a substantial aid package.
Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, Canada has pledged a total of $24.5 billion in assistance to Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker up to the end of October 2025, this places Canada as the world's sixth-largest donor. The tracker quantified Canada's aid at approximately US$15.23 billion, comprising roughly US$9.6 billion in financial aid and US$4.99 billion in military support.
While some Canadians have questioned the cost, analysts like former defence minister Jason Kenney have clarified that the incremental fiscal impact is lower. He noted that nearly half the commitment is in the form of loans, and a significant portion of the military support represents the accounting value of aging equipment being transferred from existing stocks.
Strategic Outlook: Endurance Over Collapse
Ivison's analysis concludes that while a sudden collapse of Russia is not imminent, the cumulative strain of the war and the sustained industrial output of Canada and the EU create a decisive edge. The collective West's ability to continuously supply Ukraine with financial resources, military hardware, and technological support presents a challenge Russia cannot easily match in the long term. This dynamic, the argument goes, positions the Canada-EU alliance to ultimately prevail in a protracted contest of attrition, reinforcing the strategic importance of continued, unwavering support for Kyiv.
