Ontario Premier Doug Ford is facing a significant decline in his poll numbers as his government approaches its eighth anniversary in power. While Ford has overseen substantial growth and infrastructure projects, recent surveys suggest voters are losing confidence in his leadership.
Ford's Record in Office
Since taking office, Ford has presided over a population increase of two million people and a 54% growth in the provincial budget. Much of the increased spending has gone to healthcare, with over 50 hospital projects launched. Major infrastructure initiatives, such as the Ontario Line subway in Toronto and LRT projects in Hamilton, Ottawa, and Mississauga, are underway. Highway projects like the 413, Bradford Bypass, and twinning of the Garden City Skyway have also moved forward after years of delays.
Declining Support
Despite these achievements, Ford's popularity is waning. An Abacus Data poll shows the Progressive Conservatives statistically tied with the leaderless Liberals at 37% and 36%, respectively. The NDP trails at 17%, and the Greens at 5%. Among women, Ford's support has dropped to 32%, while the Liberals lead at 42%. In contrast, before the February 2025 election, Ford held 38% of women's support compared to 31% for the Liberals.
Overall, 72% of voters express some desire for change, with only 28% believing Ford's PCs should be re-elected. Other polls from Pallas Data and Liaison Strategies confirm the downward trend.
Reasons for the Slump
Recent controversies, including a jet purchase reversal and changes to freedom of information laws, may have contributed to the decline. However, analysts suggest a deeper issue: the Ford government appears directionless. Questions about Ford's vision for a fourth term remain unanswered, and relying on a weak opposition is no longer a viable strategy.
Ford's past electoral successes came against unpopular opponents: Kathleen Wynne in 2018, a pandemic-focused opposition in 2022, and a chaotic Liberal campaign in 2025. The next election, likely in 2029, will see Ford seeking a fourth mandate after 11 years in power.
Can Ford Recover?
Political observers believe Ford can turn things around, but he must articulate a clear vision for the future. As his campaign manager Kory Teneycke noted, the weight of incumbency grows heavier over time, affecting voter perception. Without a compelling reason for continued leadership, Ford's poll numbers may continue to slide.
