The Toronto Maple Leafs are expected to select Gavin McKenna with the first-overall pick in the 2026 National Hockey League draft on Friday, according to consensus thinking around the league. The draft will take place at KeyBank Center in Buffalo.
Leafs win draft lottery
The Maple Leafs won the draft lottery on May 5, despite having only an 8.5% chance of securing the top spot. This marks the third time in franchise history that Toronto will pick first overall, following Wendel Clark in 1985 and Auston Matthews in 2016.
Clark became a fan favorite with his goal-scoring and physical play, serving as captain from 1991 to 1994. Matthews, who was named captain in 2024, holds the franchise record for most goals with 428, eight more than Mats Sundin's total with Toronto. Both players have left a significant mark on the organization.
Gavin McKenna: the top prospect
McKenna, a left winger from Whitehorse, Yukon, played two seasons in the Western Hockey League, recording 226 points in 117 games. He then moved to Penn State for the 2025-26 NCAA season, where as an 18-year-old he tallied 51 points (15 goals and 36 assists) in 35 games. His elite vision, speed, stickhandling, and hockey IQ set him apart in this draft class.
According to Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun, the belief across the NHL is that McKenna will be pulling on a Leafs sweater on Friday. The Leafs need a top-line winger to play with captain Auston Matthews, especially heading into Year 2 without Mitch Marner.
Other top options
Ivar Stenberg, a left winger from Frolunda HC in the Swedish Hockey League, is considered the second-best option. Stenberg recorded 33 points in 43 games as an 18-year-old, the most by a player that age in the SHL since 1998-99. He also had eight points in eight games for Sweden at the world championship. Stenberg offers strong defensive awareness and is expected to step into an NHL lineup quickly.
Chase Reid, a defenceman from the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds in the Ontario Hockey League, is another potential pick. The 18-year-old Michigan native had 18 goals and 30 assists in 45 games and produced for the United States at the world junior championship. He has committed to Michigan State for 2026-27.
Other notable prospects include Caleb Malhotra, a centre from the Brantford Bulldogs, who had 84 points in 67 games and 26 points in 15 playoff games; Alberts Smits, a Latvian defenceman who played in Finland and Germany; and Carson Carels, a defenceman from the Prince George Cougars who had 73 points in 58 games.
Likelihood of picking McKenna
Koshan estimates there is a 90% chance the Leafs take McKenna, with Stenberg at 8% and Reid at 1%. The Leafs are not expected to trade the first-overall pick, as McKenna and Stenberg are considered the top talents in the draft.
General manager John Chayka has not publicly confirmed the pick, but the belief across the NHL is that McKenna will be chosen first.
