Can Tristan Jarry work like he has never worked before to build up his body and spirit this summer? Can he return strong for the Edmonton Oilers in 2025-26? At age 32 next April, can he lead the Oilers to Stanley Cup glory?
Yes, he can. It is possible, though not likely. However, a handful of goalies such as Darcy Kuemper, Braden Holtby, and Anton Khudobin—who share similarities with Jarry—have reached the Cup Final and even helped their teams win the championship in the past decade.
The Harsh Reality of Goalie Aging
The hard truth for NHL goalies is that after age 24, save percentages on average trend downward consistently. In other words, goalies do not improve after 24; they get worse. This sobering finding comes from a comprehensive study by garik16 of Hockey-Graphs, which analyzed nearly two decades of NHL goaltending data. The study concluded:
- Goalies do not improve as they age.
- By age 30, decline becomes noticeably pronounced.
- By the mid-30s, goalies rapidly fall apart.
Jarry's career follows this trajectory. At age 24 with Pittsburgh, he posted a .921 save percentage in 33 games. Last season at age 30, splitting time between Edmonton and Pittsburgh, his save percentage dropped to .882 in 33 games. His quality start percentage fell from 61.3% at age 24 to 48.3% last season.
Veteran Goalies in the Playoffs
But what about the narrative that veteran goalies win Stanley Cups? Old-time hockey men often claim that a team needs an experienced goalie who can make timely saves in big moments while riding out bad times with grit and good humor. A back-of-the-envelope study of the past 10 years, examining goalies who played at least five playoff games and helped their teams reach the Stanley Cup Finals, found an average age of 29.2. Veteran goalies indeed appear to be part of the formula for success, offering some hope for Jarry.
When looking closely at these 17 goalies, three or four have career arcs resembling Jarry's. A handful were great when young but declined with age, including Matt Murray (won Cups at 21 and 22), Andrei Vasilevskiy (won at 25 and 26), Jordan Binnington (won at 25), Adin Hill (won at 26), and Martin Jones (Cup finalist at 26). While not a guarantee, this suggests that Jarry could still find playoff success despite his recent struggles.
