The Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks have split the first two games of their playoff series, leaving Oilers fans and analysts searching for answers. Much of the scrutiny has fallen on Edmonton goaltender Connor Ingram, who has posted a modest 0.855 save percentage through two contests. Ducks netminder Lukas Dostal has not fared much better at 0.887, but Ingram's struggles with shots from distance have drawn particular attention.
Ingram's Performance Under the Microscope
Ingram allowed 10 high-danger shots in Game 1 and eight in Game 2, not counting numerous heavily screened point shots. He was beaten on one such shot in Game 1 and three in Game 2. Several goals also originated from rebounds that Ingram deflected back into the slot. While some observers argue Ingram played well in Game 1 and was outplayed by Dostal in Game 2, the consensus among fans and commentators is less forgiving.
Criticism from Analysts
Rob Soria, a longtime Oilers commentator and author of a book on Connor McDavid, voiced frustration with Ingram's handling of long-range shots. "He becomes a shooter-tutor," Soria said. "If it doesn't hit him, good luck. He has to fight through these screens. If he can't, coaches will have to adapt and give up more down low. Not ideal, but these point shots are killing them." Soria noted that traffic was minimal on the two screened goals Ingram allowed in Wednesday's 6-4 loss.
Expected Goals Debate
Some commentators have pointed to expected goals models, which suggest Ingram allowed more goals than shot quality would predict. However, these models struggle to account for heavily screened shots, where the goaltender's view is completely blocked. Data scraping models often classify such shots as low-danger, even when they are anything but.
Series Outlook
Both teams have allowed far too many high-danger chances, and the goaltending has been adequate but not stellar. As the series shifts to Anaheim, the Oilers will need Ingram to improve his play from distance or risk falling behind. The Ducks, meanwhile, will look to exploit this weakness further.
