The upcoming review of the North American free-trade agreement represents a pivotal moment for Alberta's economy. While U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed its significance, for local business leaders like Corey Smith, the stakes couldn't be higher.
A Year of Turmoil for Trade-Reliant Firms
The past twelve months have been described as a "knee-knocker" by Smith, the CEO of Edmonton-based RAM Elevators & Lifts Inc. The period was marked by significant trade chaos, as businesses dependent on cross-border commerce struggled to forecast their future. The core of the anxiety is the scheduled review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) this year, which has companies across the province preparing for scenarios with, and potentially without, a stable long-term trade pact.
Smith's company, which manufactures residential wheelchair lifts and commercial elevators in Edmonton, felt the ripple effects of the uncertainty. The year began with threats from the American administration to impose 25 per cent tariffs on nearly all Canadian imports. Although RAM's products ultimately received an exemption under CUSMA, the broader climate of unpredictability took its toll.
"We haven't given up on the States. Our U.S. business is down about 20 per cent but it hasn't been obliterated," Smith explained. The tension caused some smaller U.S. dealers to become hesitant about selling non-American goods, forcing RAM to strategically target less risk-sensitive markets.
Alberta's Mixed Fortunes Amid Trade Tensions
Data from ATB Financial reveals a nuanced picture for the province. In October, Alberta's exports to the U.S. faced an effective tariff rate of just 1.8 per cent, significantly lower than the Canadian average of 6.4 per cent. This is largely because Alberta's major sectors, including energy, have remained largely tariff-free under CUSMA compliance.
"Alberta has fared relatively well, all things considered. I think it's been more impacted by the trade uncertainty than the tariff itself," noted ATB chief economist Mark Parsons. However, the shadow of sector-specific U.S. levies still looms large for several Canadian industries.
Nationwide, industries such as steel, aluminum, copper, automobiles, and wood products have been hit with steep tariffs. While many affected firms attempted to pivot by increasing exports to non-U.S. markets in the first ten months of last year, ATB's report this week concluded that this growth was insufficient to offset the losses incurred in the U.S. market.
Investing in an Uncertain Future
For entrepreneurs like Corey Smith, the timing of the trade turbulence has been particularly challenging. His company made significant investments based on a stable trade outlook, including betting on growth in the U.S. market with a new manufacturing plant.
"We're certainly not wiped off the planet, but in a year where we invested in a new manufacturing plant to grow, particularly betting on the U.S. market, it's been a bit of a knee-knocker," Smith stated, encapsulating the sentiment of many Alberta business operators. As the CUSMA review process unfolds in 2026, the province's trade-dependent enterprises continue to navigate a landscape defined by high stakes and unpredictable political winds.
